Santa Barbara Commercial Real Estate - Good Times….Bad Times

Rick Longpre

For many, the economic collapse of the Great Recession is fading in the rear view mirror…but for even more, its image still fills the mirror. The U.S. economic news and commercial real estate news is, generally, rosy…even when the world political and economic news is not.

We live in a time of economic and technological complexity as well as an interconnected world. At the same time, we have lost confidence in our private and public institutions and leaders. In this context, Trump’s appearance in the headlines as a leader may be more understandable as pointed out by David Brooks points out in a recent New York Times Op Ed. 

For real estate owners, the recovery is a pleasant relief from the relentless economic pressure of the Great Recesion.  The hot local real estate market continues.  YTD commercial sales (excluding multi-family) are at 38 through 2Q15, compared to the last 5 year totals (2010-14, respectively) of 49, 71, 85, 83 and 103.  Valuations (cap rates) remain stable and the seller's market continues.  

Vacancies continue to decline in most submarkets with Santa Barbara industrial, retail and multi-family vacancies nearing 0%!  As would be expected, rental rates are moving quickly in a vertical direction with an astounding industrial vacancy at 0.1% and an average asking rate increase of over 60% over the last couple of years.  However, for tenants, both residential and commercial, the pressure on discretionary income and businesses bottom lines, is reaching concerning levels.

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